Evaluating Potential For Screening with Emerging Multi-Cancer Early Detection Tests in Canada
Description: Multi-cancer early detection tests are tests which look for DNA shed by cancer cells in the blood. Because this DNA can sometimes be detected before the cancer becomes clinically apparent, it may be possible to use these tests for cancer screening in asymptomatic populations to detect cancer earlier, and to test for multiple cancers at the same time. Earlier detection of cancer could potentially lead to better survival and lower morbidity, as many cancers respond better to treatment when detected at earlier stages. However, these tests can also lead to false positive results; people with false positive results may undergo potentially harmful and invasive medical procedures to rule out cancer, and risk taking up medical resources away from people with cancer. An ambitious large-scale clinical trial is underway in the UK to assess whether a population-level multi-cancer screening program with these tests is feasible and effective. It is highly unlikely such a trial will ever be conducted in Canada due to the enormous cost. This project will use simulation modelling to generate evidence needed to evaluate potential impacts of screening with multi-cancer early detection tests in Canada. Simulation models can be used to take the results from clinical research in other populations and apply them to the Canadian context to project what would be the impact of screening in Canada over the long term. We will program extensions to two previously developed simulation models calibrated to Canadian cancer epidemiology: 1) the McGill Cancer Survival model and 2) Oncosim. By using two independent models, we can better assess the robustness of predictions. The models will be programmed to use the data generated by the UK multi-cancer screening trial so that we can quickly generate concurrent evidence as more data becomes available. We expect this research to help decision makers decide whether and how to implement population-level multi-cancer screening programs in Canada.
Amount: CA$309,800
Funding type: research
Funder scheme: Project Grant
Start date: 2024-04-01
End date: 2027-03-31
Investigator: Talia Malagon
Institution: McGill University
Funded outputs count: 1
Funder award ID: 191760_1
OpenAlex ID: G1922408352