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Forecasting Research Institute

ROR: 00zq1dy58
OpenAlex ID: I4405258617
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
2024 · Karger, Ezra, Bastani, Houtan, et al. · arXiv (Cornell University) · 78
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River discharge assessment under a changing climate in the Chao Phraya River, Thailand by using MRI-AGCM3.2S
2015 · Supattana Wichakul, Yasuto Tachikawa, et al. · Hydrological Research Letters · 15
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Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment
2023 · Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, et al. · Futures & Foresight Science · 9
Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament
2025 · Ezra Karger, Josh Rosenberg, et al. · International Journal of Forecasting · 5
Belief updating in AI‐risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration
2025 · Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, et al. · Risk Analysis · 4
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
2026 · Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, et al. · National Bureau of Economic Research · 2
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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2024 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · 2
CruxBench: A Benchmark of Information Discovery
2026 · Dai, Hui, Piao, Lina, et al. · arXiv (Cornell University) · 1
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Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
2026 · Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, et al. · International Journal of Forecasting · 1
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Did US Worker Retraining Reduce Participant Automation Exposure?
2026 · Jacobs, Julian, Canedy, Jordan · arXiv (Cornell University) · 1
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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2024 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) · 1
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Forecasting LLM‐Enabled Biorisk and the Efficacy of Safeguards
2026 · Bridget Williams, Luca Righetti, et al. · Risk Analysis
Measuring Judgment Quality in Natural-Language Explanations: Evidence from Forecasting Tournaments
2026 · Karvetski, Christopher W., Huang, Sheldon S., et al. · arXiv (Cornell University)
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Symmetry Defeats Auditing
2026 · Merrill, Nick, Medley, Zeke · arXiv (Cornell University)
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Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most
2026 · Merrill, Nick, Lee, Jaeho, et al. · arXiv (Cornell University)
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Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
2026 · Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, et al. · SSRN Electronic Journal
Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI
2026 · Ezra Karger, Otto Kuusela, et al.
PDF
The case for quantile forecasts: Enhancing reliability in the identification of forecaster talent
2026 · Sophie Ma Zhu, David V. Budescu, et al. · Judgment and Decision Making
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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2025 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)
PDF
The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2025 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)
PDF
The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2025 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)
PDF
The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2025 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)
PDF
The Psychometric Properties of Probability and Quantile Forecasts
2025 · Sophie Ma Zhu, David Budescu, et al. · PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints)
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The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
2025 · Mark Himmelstein, Sophie Ma Zhu, et al. · SSRN Electronic Journal
Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
2023 · Philip E. Tetlock, Christopher Karvetski, et al. · Futures & Foresight Science
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Works count: 25
Citation count: 353
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