Modelling and Forecasting Health Expectancy
Year: 2012
Type: article
Abstract: Life expectancy of a human population measures the expected (or average) remaining years\nof life at a given age. Life expectancy can be defined by two forms of measurement: the\nperiod and the cohort life expectancy. The period life expectancy represents the mortality\nconditions at a specific moment in time, in comparison to the cohort life expectancy, which\ndepicts the life history of a specific group of individuals (born in the same year). Period life\nexpectancies are frequently utilized when assessing and monitoring the health status of a\npopulation over time.\nCurrently, the life expectancy of the Western world population is much greater than in\nprior decades. The dramatic increase over the last century is considered as one of the great\nachievements of modern societies. Between 1970 and 2009 the average length of life in the\nold EU member states increased from 68.7 to 78.0 among men and from 74.9 to 83.5 among\nwomen. Similar trends were witnessed among the elderly. Although there are many differences\nin the health service organization, national wealth, culture and associated individual\nbehaviours between these countries, within a broader European perspective the upward\ntrends are remarkably alike.\nIn the first half of the twentieth century eradication of infectious diseases caused unprecedented\nimprovements in mortality, particularly at young ages. As the risk of dying from\ninfectious diseases was reduced, those saved from dying at younger ages survived to middle\nand older ages. A second wave of mortality improvement was achieved mainly at the adult\nlife. Since the 1970s ischemic heart disease mortality has decreased in most Western countries\ncontributing to the majority of the declines in age-specific death rates. It has been\nsuggested that the decline in cardiovascular disease mortality is due to the combination of\nbetter treatment and changes in risk factors such as: lower blood pressure, reduced tobacco\nconsumption, diets containing lower cholesterol, and increased physical activity within the\npopulation. There are of course more distal influences that contributed to the gains in\noverall mortality. The most important elements include increasing welfare, greater access\nto and better quality of health care, rising living standards and improvements in the level\nof education.\nIn comparison with mortality, health is difficult to measure and estimates of population\nhealth are usually
Author: István Májer
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W146023147