A note on Hubbert's hypotheses and techniques
Year: 2011
Type: other
Abstract: Many have attempted to forecast the date of the production peak and the volume of the ultimate reserves of a mineral commodity, using techniques derived from Hubbert's thesis. This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert's thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.
Source: HAL
Author: Giraud, Pierre-Noël
Institution: Centre d’Économie et de Décision Publique (CEDP)
Language: English
Field: Energy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1479745467