Work

Subjective Probability and Its Measurement

Year: 1973

Type: article

Abstract: SUMMARY Subjective probability is defined and its place in decision analysis, with special reference to business problems, is identified. The literature on its measurement is critically analysed both for the single decision-maker and group. The use of direct fractile assessment and the Delphi Technique are felt to be some of the more tenable of the methods reviewed. An account of some of the behavioural aspects of decision-making with a resume of the risky shift theories is included and their implications are discussed. Some practical guidelines and suggestions for further research are indicated.

Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (General)

DOI: 10.2307/2344419

Authors: J. M. Hampton, P. G. Moore, H. Thomas

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W1483974228

FWCI: 3.389

Cites: 67

Cited by: 106

Related to: 10