Obstructing Oil: Evidence from Nigeria on Why Bargains in Oil-Rich Regions Can Prevent Civil War
Year: 2013
Type: preprint
Abstract: Why does oil cause civil war? I propose a new argument, that populations in oil-rich regions of states can credibly threaten to obstruct oil production, and this ability results in an outsize share of the revenues transferred to them. In contrast to existing scholarship that describes oil wars over territorial control of natural resources, I predict that resulting regional economic inequalities lead to conflict in resource-poor regions and not in the resource region itself. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with Nigerian government officials and Ijaw and Ogoni ethnic group leaders as well as documentary evidence, I first trace the strategic disruption of oil production by the Ogoni and Ijaw ethnic groups in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria in the 1990s and 2000s, and how the disruptions caused dramatic concessions from the state. I argue that these negotiations prevented the outbreak of full-scale civil war. Second, I present evidence from an original survey of 3,000 civilians and traditional leaders in communities proximate to oil drilling and oil theft (bunkering) points in the region. I demonstrate how ethnic groups and affiliated militant groups use the proximity of their communities to oil infrastructure to make credible threats to interrupt oil production.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Author: Graeme Blair
Institution: University of California, Los Angeles
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1493634518