Integrated assessment for climate sensitive urban design in London
Year: 2012
Type: conference-abstract
Abstract: Urban areas by nature of their high population density are concentrations of vulnerability to climate change impacts and their emissions are a significant driver of global climate change. We have developed an integrated assessment that simulates the main processes of long term change at the scale of whole cities to support climate sensitive urban design. A series of simulation modules are coupled within a scenario and policy analysis framework. Global and national scenarios of climate and socio-economic change drive the analysis and feed into models of the regional economy and land use change. Spatially explicit simulations of climate, land use and socio-economic change inform analysis of the impacts of climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. The effectiveness of planning, adaptation and mitigation options are tested with stakeholders. This paper presents a case study focusing on landuse change, flooding and drought risks in London. Analysis shows spatial planning has a profound effect on future flood risk. Flooding and drought risk could increase fourfold by 2100 with socio-economic factors responsible for over half of the rise. However, portfolios of water sensitive design measures can contain these potential increases with retrofitting of existing building fundamental to addressing this challenge in London.
Institution: Newcastle University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1493671862