Has Output Become More Predictable? Changes in Greenbook Forecast Accuracy
Year: 2005
Type: article
Abstract: Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is much less than the reduction in volatility. Associated with this, recent forecasts had little predictive power.
Author: Peter Tulip
Institutions: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W1516053173