Year: 2012
Type: dissertation
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Each of the four codes of professional football played in Australia (i.e., Rugby Union, Rugby \nLeague, Australian Rules Football and Soccer) is faced with the dilemma of identifying and \ndeveloping talented young athletes into elite senior players. One of the key difficulties faced \nby talent scouts, coaches and selectors is identifying talented young individuals during \nadolescence. Individual differences in the timing and tempo of the maturation process, which \nare most visible during puberty, can have a significant impact on all aspects of sporting \nperformance and resultant judgements of talented players. With junior and youth teams \norganised according to chronological age-groupings, inequalities related to perceptions of \nplaying ability are likely to emerge between individuals based on when in a calendar year they \nare born. These inequalities have become known as ‘Relative Age Effects’, with young \nplayers born earlier in a selection year gaining advantages over their later-born counterparts. \nThese advantages include more playing time, a perception of possessing more talent and a \nsubsequent increase in the probability of gaining selection in elite representative teams. \nThe purpose of the first part of this investigation was to examine whether a relative age effect \nwas present in a cohort of elite junior rugby union players competing at the annual national \nU16 championships. Individual birth-date data and playing position was recorded for each \nparticipant at the championships over a seven-year period (2004 – 2010). Chi-square statistics \nwere used to examine differences between observed and expected birth date distributions in \nall players and general playing positions (forwards and backs). Comparison of birth date \ndistributions between players in the 1st (top 8 teams) and 2nd division (bottom 4 teams) was \nalso conducted. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were also calculated \nfor both quartile and half-year distributions (H1 and H2). For the OR analyses, the relatively \nyoungest members, (i.e. quartile 4 and H2 respectively) of the annual age-groupings were \nassigned as referent groups. \nThe second part of the investigation examined whether increasing age and skill levels would \nact as moderators of relative age effects in talented Australian rugby union players. \nIndividual birth-date data was obtained for Australian U20 teams from 2008 to 2011. Birthdate \ndistributions for this group were then compared to distributions from the U16 national \nchampionships for the equivalent time period (i.e. 2004 - 2007). Chi-square statistics were \nagain used to examine differences between observed and expected birth date distributions in \nall players to determine the size of the relative age effect in the U20’s teams and to the \ncompare these results with those from the U16 group. ORs and CIs were also calculated for \nboth quartile and half-year distributions (H1 and H2). For the OR analyses, the relatively \nyoungest members, (i.e. quartile 4 and H2, respectively) of the annual age-groupings were \nassigned as referent groups. Player retention along the development pathway was also \nexamined, with selection to Australian schoolboys teams observed as the intermediate step \nfrom U16 championships to the Australian U20 team. \nThe main finding from the first part of the investigation was the presence of a strong relative \nage effect within the cohort of elite junior rugby union players. The birth-date distribution \nwas significantly biased towards a higher number of births earlier in the selection year. There \nwas also a significant underrepresentation from players born in the fourth quarter of the year. \nThis study also found that birth date distributions were influenced by age and skill level, but \nnot playing position. A stronger age bias was observed for players from the division one \nteams competing at the U16 championships, with a larger disparity between players born in \nthe first and last quarters of the selection year than in division two. Playing position did not \nappear to impact on the birth date distribution. Even though there was a strong \noverrepresentation of players born in the first half of the year for both forward and backline \nplaying positions, the percentage breakdown for each group were similar. The second part of \nthe investigation showed there was a strong retention of players along the developmental \npathway from the U16 age group through to the Australian U20 Junior World Cup team. \nThese findings suggest that increasing age does not appear to act as a moderator of relative \nage effects in talented Australian rugby union players. \nIn conclusion, the results of this study demonstrated the presence of a strong relative age \neffect in a group of elite U16 rugby players. This biased birth date distribution also appeared \nalong the developmental pathway until the Australian U20 team. On the basis of these \nfindings, it is recommended that current selection processes require modification to assist with \nminimising and/or eliminating the various factors that have led to their development in elite \njunior rugby union teams.
Author: Peter Damian Fernley
Language: English
Subfield: Developmental and Educational Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1521621945