Measuring Uncertainty in Long-term Travel Demand Forecasting From Demographic Modelling
Year: 2009
Type: article
Abstract: Uncertainty on traffic forecasts may have an impact on reimbursement scheduling for investment, as well as for scenarios for operating costs. Even the best projections are based on models and assumptions, thus raising the question of their accuracy. Indeed, long term investments are risky and it is important to cope with uncertainty. This paper deals with the uncertainty on a long term projection with an Age-Cohort approach. We used the jackknife technique to estimate confidence intervals and observe that the demographic approach outlines the structural determinants for long term trends of mobility.
Source: IATSS Research
Authors: Jimmy ARMOOGUM, Jean-Loup MADRE, Yves BUSSIÈRE
Institution: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique
Language: English
Subfield: Transportation
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W1530632899