Year: 1954
Type: report
Abstract: The Monte Carlo Method is concerned with the application of random sampling to problems of applied mathematics. While subtle or difficult questions may arise in applications, most problems can be treated without using much statistical theory. Nevertheless statistical theory can be very helpful. This report presents an elementary exposition of some of the ideas and techniques that have proved useful in problems with which the author has been concerned. In this case, the word elementary implies that the author has tried to make the presentation intelligible to a mathematician, physicist, or engineer with only a slight formal background in probability theory. There will be a strong flavor of the "cookbook" about many selections. The author can only suggest judicious skipping. It will be assumed that the reader has in intuitive notion of the idea that probability (even though philosophers may argue). That is, that he knows what is meant by the statement "The probability that a 'fair' coil lands heads up when tolled is 1/2," and that he knows and has had some basic experience with the simplest rules of the calculus of probabilities. In any case most of the statistical ideas that are used will be presented or reviewed in the first two chapters.
DOI: 10.2172/4353680
Author: Herman Kahn
Institutions: RAND Corporation, United States Department of Commerce
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W1531269771