Ilmastonmuutos, lajien levinneisyysaluemuutokset ja epävarmuus : Suojelusuunnittelun uusi aikakausi
Year: 2012
Type: dissertation
Abstract: All species are adapted to certain climatic conditions, outside of which they cannot survive. Changes in the climatic environment therefore force species to either adapt to the new conditions or move to areas where suitable conditions are still present in order to avoid extinction. Several studies have shown that species from various taxa are currently moving their ranges polewards and to higher elevations to keep up with shifting climate regimes. However, species differ widely in their dispersal abilities. In addition, natural landscapes are becoming increasingly human-dominated, further hindering dispersal by decreasing permeability. Anthropogenic climate change is therefore expected to become one of the major drivers of species extinctions by the end of the 21st century. Species range shifts are problematic in conservation planning, because dynamic biodiversity patterns hamper our ability to identify priority areas for protection. Because protected area networks are geographically fixed, climate change may also drive species out of reserves, foiling past conservation efforts. In this thesis the different risks and opportunities of conducting conservation planning under climate change are investigated. This research focuses on the uncertainties that arise from working with unknown future events, technical challenges of observing and predicting species range shifts, and using (or ignoring) information about future impacts in conservation planning. The major findings of this thesis are that climate change is already rapidly reshaping species distributions in Finland and that ignoring future dynamics can lead to misguided and potentially inefficient conservation decisions. The results presented here show that modelling future impacts using so-called niche modelling techniques, despite their inherent uncertainties, can provide useful information about how species distributions and conservation statuses will be affected by climate change. For example previously created models for Finnish breeding birds predicted well recently observed changes in species distribution sizes. More importantly, the observed changes seem to match best with predictions that follow the most extreme climate change scenario. A key factor for successfully measuring and predicting climate change impacts are good monitoring data, the role of which should be more widely acknowledged by decision-makers. Uncertainty in climate change research is pervasive and cannot ever be entirely eliminated. This work offers tools to assist in both spatial prioritization and decision making when scarce conservation resources need to be allocated under uncertain future conditions. The findings of this thesis strongly encourage using proactive approaches that account for future impacts. The results also suggests that while striving to reduce epistemic uncertainty is important in climate change and conservation research, other sources of uncertainty such as socio-political factors or volitional human behaviour might constitute far larger determinants of successful conservation actions, and therefore merit stronger focus in research.
Source: Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja
Author: Kujala, Heini
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1540668497