Improved Modelling and Assessment of the Performance of Firefighting Means in the Frame of a Fire PSA
Year: 2015
Type: article
Abstract: An integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis (IDPSA) was carried out to assess the performances of the firefighting means to be applied in a nuclear power plant. The tools used in the analysis are the code FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) for fire simulation and the tool MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for handling epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The combination of both tools allowed for an improved modelling of a fire interacting with firefighting means while epistemic uncertainties because lack of knowledge and aleatory uncertainties due to the stochastic aspects of the performances of the firefighting means are simultaneously taken into account. The MCDET-FDS simulations provided a huge spectrum of fire sequences each associated with a conditional occurrence probability at each point in time. These results were used to derive probabilities of damage states based on failure criteria considering high temperatures of safety related targets and critical exposure times. The influence of epistemic uncertainties on the resulting probabilities was quantified. The paper describes the steps of the IDPSA and presents a selection of results. Focus is laid on the consideration of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Insights and lessons learned from the analysis are discussed.
DOI: 10.1155/2015/238723
Authors: Martina Kloos, Joerg Peschke
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,630
OpenAlex ID: W1579021000