Ethnic distribution, effective power and ethnic conflict
Year: 2013
Type: dissertation
Abstract: This thesis is investigating both in theoretical and empirical terms the relationship \nbetween the features of ethnic distribution and the probability of con ict. The thesis \nis composed of four chapters. The rst chapter is the introduction to the thesis in \nwhich I brie y summarize the main problems related to the existing literature on \nethnic diversity and con ict and I present an overview of the measures of ethnic \ndiversity commonly used in the literature. \nIn the second chapter I propose a theoretical model that speci es the potential \nof con ict in a society as a function of the population distribution across ethnic \ngroups. I axiomatically derive a general parametric class of indices of con ict potential \nthat combines the groups' e ective power and the between-groups interaction. The \ne ective power of a group is a function of a group's relative size but it also depends on \nthe relative sizes of all the other groups in the population. The interaction component, \non the other hand, is given by the probability of interaction between the members \nof one group with those of other groups. I show that for certain parameter values \nthe index reduces to the existing indices of ethnic diversity, while in general the \nindices combine in a non-linear way three di erent aspects of ethnic diversity, namely \nthe fractionalization, the polarization and the ethnic dominance. The results of the \nmodel share some common features with the literature on con icts in contests and \nthe literature on voting power indices. In particular, the power component of the \nextreme element of the class of indices is intuitively related to the de nition of voting \npower in a simple majority game. In that particular case, the value of the e ective \npower is given by the relative Penrose-Banzhaf index of voting power calculated over \nthe shares of populations associated to each ethnic group. In the third chapter I investigate empirically the role of ethnic diversity in the \nexplanation of the ethnic con ict outbreak. The empirical performance of the indices \nof con ict potential developed in the second chapter is tested against the existing \ndistributional indices of ethnic diversity within the context of the commonly used \nlogistic model that focuses on the onset of ethnic con icts in a time range from 1946 to \n2005. Together with the set of the explanatory variables for structural conditions and \ncountry characteristics, I take advantage of the recent "Ethnic Power Relations" data \nset which includes additional information on the political exclusion and competition \nalong ethnic lines and it o ers the best coding for ethnic wars. The results obtained \nsuggest that the indices of con ict potential outperform the existing indices of ethnic \ndiversity in the explanation of ethnic con ict onset. This evidence is robust to the \ninclusion of a larger set of regressors, time and regional controls as well as to several \nother estimation techniques. \nThe fourth chapter explores empirically the determinants of con ict duration with \na particular attention to the potential role of ethnic diversity together with ethnic \npolitics and competition dynamics. The rst part of the chapter presents an overview \nof the existing literature on con ict duration, the main data cources and the related \neconometric issues. The second part of the chapter consists in a non-parametric and \na parametric survival analysis of the duration of ethnic con ict where we address \nin detail the issues of non-proportionality of the hazard function, the unmeasured \nheterogeneity and the presence of "repeated events". The results suggest that there \nis a statistically signi cant and robust association between ethnic distribution and \ncon ict duration, together with other commonly used explanatory variables in the \nliterature on con ict duration.
Author: Matija Kovačič
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1594504598