Predicting Delinquency in Adolescence and Young Adulthood: A Longitudinal Analysis of Risk and Protective Factors
Year: 2006
Type: dissertation
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Longitudinal studies that track individuals from childhood into adulthood may be\nthe best method to identify risk and protective factors for crime and delinquency. The\nprimary goals of this study were to determine 1) the ability of risk factors identified by\nthe end of elementary school to predict delinquency referrals, 2) the extent to which\npositive assets (promotive factors) add to the prediction of delinquency, and 3) potential\ninteractions between these risk and promotive factors that moderate the relationship\nbetween risk and delinquency referrals. The final purpose was to identify gender and\nracial differences in these relationships. The current study utilized archival data from a\nlarge metropolitan Florida school district which tracked students who began kindergarten\nin the 1989-90 school year for as long as they remained in the district.\nAfter controlling for gender, race, and SES, fifth grade teacher rated externalizing\nbehaviors, prenatal smoking, parent marital status, and mother’s years of education\nsignificantly predicted delinquency referrals. The biological factors birth weight and\nApgar score were not related to delinquency referrals in correlation or regression models.\nAdditionally, the combination of the nine potential promotive factors was found to\ncontribute to a significant increase in variance above that accounted for by the three\ncontrol factors and nine risk factors. The most consistently supported promotive factor\nwas parental acceptance/involvement. Although no interaction effects were found in the\noverall model, when analyzed by gender, two significant interactions were found for\nfemales. These interactions were between parents’ martial status and parental acceptance\ninvolvement as well as third grade standardized reading scores and parent educational\ninvolvement. Findings suggest that, even when using a stringent test of significance, risk\nfactors assessed between birth and the end of elementary school can be used to predict\nthe number of subsequent delinquency referrals.\nIn conclusion, results from this study not only identify and confirm early risk\nfactors for later delinquency involvement, but also implicate potential positive assets that\nmay buffer the impact of early risk factors. These findings can inform early intervention\nprograms aimed at reducing rates of juvenile delinquency, by identifying criteria for early\nidentification as well as components of effective prevention/intervention.
Author: Amy E. Green
Institution: University of South Florida
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1601328859