Year: 2006
Type: preprint
Abstract: The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in recent years, with most of them assigning significant probability to extremely high sensitivity, such as P(S>6C)>5%. However, closer examination reveals that these estimates are based on a number of implausible implicit assumptions. We explain why these estimates cannot be considered credible and therefore have no place in the decision-making process. In fact, when basic probability theory is applied and reasonable assumptions are made, much greater confidence in a moderate value for S (~2.5C) is easily justified, with S very unlikely to be as high as 4.5C.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Annan, J. D., Hargreaves, J. C.
Institution: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1624857074