Declining Oil Revenues and Regime Stability in the Long-Term
Year: 2011
Type: preprint
Abstract: Though a large body of literature details how oil wealth is thought to affect regime stability and transition, much of this literature implies but does not fully consider the implications of a long-term decline in oil revenues. By drawing on theories of political transitions that hinge on the distribution of economic assets, I argue that while a prolonged decline in oil wealth should be associated with increasing taxes in democracies and a decrease in pro-majoritarian spending in authoritarian regimes, declining oil revenues would not affect regime stability in either case. Rather, a long term decline in oil wealth should push governments toward the extremes of the political spectrum, making authoritarian regimes more authoritarian and democratic regimes more democratic.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Author: Joseph A. Florence
Institution: Cornell University
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W1671255718