Work

FluTE, a Publicly Available Stochastic Influenza Epidemic Simulation Model

Year: 2010

Type: article

Abstract: Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development.

Source: PLoS Computational Biology

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000656

Authors: Dennis L. Chao, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Valerie J. Obenchain, Ira M. Longini

Institutions: Fred Hutch Cancer Center, University of Washington

Language: English

Topic: Influenza Virus Research Studies

Subfield: Epidemiology

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,043