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Future demand for general practice services: Effects of population change and trends in service use

Year: 2003

Type: article

Abstract: This study investigated three key determinants of demand for general practice services: population growth, population ageing and trends in service use. Projection of future service use on the basis of the two demographic factors yielded a projected growth in number of general practice services of 5.9% by 2006, with a further 6.5% growth by 2011. When trends in service use were taken into account as well as demographics, a lower rate of growth in services was projected, but an increasing proportion of long consultations and an increasing proportion of services for older adult patients. It is concluded that population ageing and population growth will continue to be major drivers of demand for general practice services in the next decade. Patterns of service use will also be a key contributor, with increased use of long consultations suggesting a greater requirement for the general practice workforce than has previously been proposed.

Source: Australian Health Review

DOI: 10.1071/ah030026a

Authors: Catherine M Joyce, Sru Wimalaratne, John J McNeil

Institutions: Monash University, University of Peradeniya, The Alfred Hospital, Alfred Health

Language: English

Topic: Primary Care and Health Outcomes

Subfield: General Health Professions

Field: Health Professions

Domain: Health Sciences

Open Access status: bronze

Funder: National Health and Medical Research Council

OpenAlex ID: W1974983877

FWCI:

Cites: 6

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10