Year: 1993
Type: article
Abstract: The rise in the yen in the early 1990s was held out as a `solution' to the persistent Japanese trade surplus. I argued, instead, that the sharp rise in the yen through mid-1993 would lead at most to a modest decline in net exports. This forecast, made in late 1993, was remarkably accurate, despite a subsequent fall in the dollar to 80 yen. It reflects a resilient feature of trade data known to most empirical researchers: that relative price movements account for only a fraction of observed movements in the balance of trade or current account.
Source: Japan and the World Economy
DOI: 10.3386/w4553
Author: David Backus
Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, New York University
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,070
OpenAlex ID: W1975013956