Work

Outbreak size distributions in epidemics with multiple stages

Year: 2012

Type: article

Abstract: Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical multistage Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) infection process. In the infinite population limit, we compute the outbreak size distributions and show that asymptotic results apply to more general multiple-type critical branching processes. Finally using heuristic arguments and simulations we establish scaling laws for a multistage SIR model in a finite population.

Source: Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment

DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/2012/07/p07018

Authors: Tibor Antal, P L Krapivsky

Institutions: University of Edinburgh, Boston University

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W1977664802

FWCI: 2.893

Cites: 35

Cited by: 14

Related to: 10