Work

The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Year: 1997

Type: report

Abstract: Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50% greater at baseline than those who died.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

DOI: 10.3386/w6193

Authors: Michael Hurd, Kathleen McGarry

Institutions: RAND Corporation, National Bureau of Economic Research, Stony Brook University, University of California, Los Angeles

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W1979384997

Cites: 10

Cited by: 142

Related to: 10