Work

Trends of measured climate forcing agents

Year: 2001

Type: article

Abstract: The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/m(2) per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately 3 W/m(2) per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario ( approximately 2 W/m(2) per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO(2) emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate +0.15 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.261553698

Authors: James E. Hansen, Makiko Sato

Institutions: Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Columbia University

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2005438795

FWCI: 9.633

Cites: 37

Cited by: 235

Related to: 10