The Marginals Never Vanished: Incumbency and Competition in Elections to the U.S. House OfRepresentatives, 1952-1982
Year: 1987
Type: preprint
Abstract: The average vote margin enjoyed by incumbent candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives increased sharply during the 1960s. Despite this, and contrary to assumptions common in the literature on recent congressional elections, electoral data show that House incumbents are no safer now than they were in the 1950s, the marginals, properly defined, have not vanished; the swing ratio has diminished little, if at all; and competition for House seats held by incumbents has not declined. Vote margins increased without adding to incumbent security, diminishing competition, or dampening swings because the heterogeneity of interelection vote swings increased at the same time.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Author: Gary C. Jacobson
Institution: University of California San Diego
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2010195009