Work

"I couldn't have seen it coming": The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability

Year: 2003

Type: article

Abstract: We examined a phenomenon related to hindsight bias, specifically, retrospective judgements about the foreseeability of an outcome. We predicted that negative, self-relevant outcomes would be judged as less foreseeable by the recipient of the outcome than by others, unlike either positive outcomes or outcomes that are not self-relevant. In the context of a "stock market decision-making game", the hypothetical stock selected by one of two players showed an extreme increase or decrease. As predicted, the player who received an extreme negative outcome reported that this outcome was less foreseeable than did the opponent and an observer, for whom the outcome was less self-relevant. For no other kind of outcome was there a difference between the recipient of an outcome, the opponent, and the observer. The findings have several implications, including the possibility that hindsight bias should be considered as a special case of retrospective foreseeability.

Source: Memory

DOI: 10.1080/09658210244000522

Authors: Melvin Mark, Renee Reiter Boburka, Kristen Eyssell, Laurie Cohen, Steven Mellor

Institutions: Pennsylvania State University, East Stroudsburg University, Gettysburg College, Arizona State University, University of Connecticut

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2015770535

FWCI: 2.42

Cites: 55

Cited by: 40

Related to: 10