Year: 2014
Type: article
Abstract: A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979–2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the cyclones is captured using a 150 cell spatial regularisation, latitude as a covariate, and spatial random effects. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also used as a covariate and is found to have a significant effect on intensifying extremal storm behaviour, especially over Northern Europe and the Iberian peninsula. Estimates of lower bounds on minimum sea-level pressure are typically 10–50 hPa below the minimum values observed for historical storms with largest differences occurring when the NAO index is positive.
Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics
DOI: 10.1214/14-aoas766
Authors: Theodoros Economou, David B. Stephenson, Christopher A. T. Ferro
Institution: University of Exeter
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2016411410