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Predictable or Not? Individuals’ Risk Decisions Do Not Necessarily Predict Their Next Ones

Year: 2013

Type: article

Abstract: This research examines the extent to which people may be free to make choices by testing their consistency in choosing risk options. In two experiments, participants were instructed to make the "same" type of risk decisions repeatedly. Experiment 1 showed that when the information for decision is positively framed in terms of gain, the participant's choice in a particular decision could not be predicted by his or her choice in another decision (R(2)s<.02). Experiment 2 showed a statistically significant predictability when the information is negatively framed in terms of loss, although the predictability was still very low (R(2)s<.07). These findings indicate the existence of a large room of variations in which a person may freely choose.

Source: PLoS ONE

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056811

Authors: Kin Fai Ellick Wong, Cecilia Cheng

Institutions: Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong

Language: English

Topic: Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics

Subfield: General Decision Sciences

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,382

Funder: Hong Kong Government