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A European science plan to sustainably increase food security under climate change

Year: 2012

Type: article

Abstract: Today's agriculture and the food systems that it underpins are at crossroads. Food security – the availability of and access to sufficient and healthy foods and good nutrition – is central for the well being of people and nations. Until recently, it was expected that despite climate change and increasing world population, there would be several decades with food surplus – and low prices – ahead [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007]. Nevertheless, food insecurity has increased in the context of the inter-linked food and economic crisis since 2008. Actions taken so far are not sufficient to overcome the crisis, let alone reduce the chronic food and nutrition security problems (Von Braun, 2008). A key challenge is to increase the global food supply to accommodate a world growing to nine billion or more people by 2050 while preserving a safe operating space for humanity by avoiding dangerous environmental change (Rockström et al., 2009). Climate change is already negatively impacting food production (Lobell et al., 2011; Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012), while the agriculture, land use and forestry sectors contribute almost one third of total greenhouse gas emissions and have a high potential for mitigation [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007]. As Beddington et al. (2012) stated – business as usual is not an option – but the question is – what are the alternative options? A number of recent studies [Beddington et al., 2012; Paillard et al., 2011; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] have indicated the need for increasing research efforts in the area of agriculture, food security and climate change. International research programmes (e.g. the CGIAR research programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, CCAFS) have been initiated to address this for the developing world. A Global Research Alliance on agricultural greenhouse gases has also been launched (Shafer et al., 2011). The Joint Programming of research Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE JPI) has been working over the past 2 years to define the critical research elements of a European response to food security under climate change. The food security and environment dilemma. Nothing is more important to humanity and the stability of societies than a reliable and affordable supply of food. Agriculture and land-use change push against several planetary boundaries including greenhouse gases, biodiversity, nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and water availability (Rockström et al., 2009; Foley et al., 2011). An estimated one third of the world's cropland is losing topsoil faster than new soil is forming and many of the poor live on degraded land (Nkonya et al., 2012). Land use change resulting from expansion of agricultural land significantly contributes to CO2 emission [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007]. Unprecedented water shortages are also increasingly apparent in many parts of the world, including southern Europe (Fereres et al., 2011) and an increased frequency of heatwaves and precipitation extremes has caused widespread agricultural production losses in the last decade (Coumou & Rahmstorf, 2012). In many European countries, the growth trends of the yields of major crops, especially wheat, have declined over the past two decades (Olesen et al., 2011). Moreover, the variability of crop yields has increased as a consequence of extreme climatic events, such as the summer heat of 2003 which led to 13 billion Euros uninsured economic losses for the agriculture sector in the EU [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007] and to large carbon losses from ecosystems (Ciais et al., 2005), the summer drought and heat in 2010 destroying vast areas of crop stands in Russia, and the 2011 spring drought in France. Future climate change impacts on the European agricultural ecosystems are likely to contrast increases in yield and expansion of climatically suitable areas in northern Europe, and more frequent water shortages and extreme weather events (heat, drought and storms) in southern Europe (Bindi & Olesen, 2011). The role of Europe. The food system in its entirety (including pre chain inputs, agricultural production, food processing and retailing) is by far the largest industrial sector in Europe (Eurostat, 2008). An innovative bio-economy in support of a 'green growth' strategy that would combine economic growth, natural resource preservation, highly efficient resource utilization in well integrated value chains and greenhouse gas reduction is also foreseen (European Commission, 2012). Europe has been a global leader in policy and action to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Not only does the European Union's own production result in significant emissions, but as a net importer of primary agricultural products it causes significant emissions elsewhere (Davis & Caldeira, 2010). However, judicious use of the European land resources supported by agricultural sciences could adapt production to climate change, lower emissions and eliminate net imports thus contributing to increasing global food security. Europe is well placed to address these issues since it recognizes the significance of global climate change. Europe could therefore provide a space for change, testing an implementation of novel strategic concepts based on new bio-physical and socio-economic research. A European science plan on agriculture, food security and climate change. Recognizing that research will be essential to meet these global challenges in the coming decades, 21 European countries1 participate in a Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI2). The mission of the FACCE – JPI is to achieve, support and promote integration, alignment and joint implementation of national resources under a common research and innovation strategy for facing the challenges at the intersection of agriculture, food security and climate change. Such interactions are constrained by external drivers, such as the rising food, fibre and fuel demands, globalization and global environmental changes and by planetary boundaries such as land and water limits. An integrated research agenda has been designed and is focused on delivering key outputs: (i) to sustainably intensify European agriculture to avoid increasing the demand on food production in other (e.g. developing) world regions, (ii) to operate agriculture within greenhouse gas, energy, biodiversity and contaminant limits and (iii) to build resilience to climatic change in agricultural and food systems. Crop and animal production systems of increased productivity with reduced environmental footprint per unit product should be developed. This will require accurate benchmarking (genotype × environment × management) of the main drivers, including socio-economics, of current agro-ecosystems, and the design, experimentation and modelling of alternative systems. To substantiate this, a Scientific Research Agenda (FACCE – JPI, 2011) has been agreed, including five evidence-based interdisciplinary core research themes, which will yield high returns with the prospect to reinforce the contribution of Europe to global public goods. Implementation roadmap. To reach these goals a systemic understanding should be gained, by developing and integrating a large range of disciplines that must be strongly connected to a foundation of agro-ecological and socio-economic modelling. Key European infrastructures need to be assembled and developed to integrate scenarios, observations, experiments and models, develop and inter-compare agro-ecological and socio-economic projections while assessing their uncertainties. This should result in possible pathways for innovative developments of European food systems and of a bioeconomy with a decadal time frame reaching 2030 or 2050. For instance, given the generation times involved in breeding major food crops, to have adapted commercial lines for 2030 will require at least 15 years of development. Hopefully, such scenario-based road maps will guide the more long-term development of climate smart agricultural policies moving away from short-term economic concerns. This will require an alignment of national research programmes and an integration of existing European instruments under the flagship of the JPI. This will also require more integrated links with the next common strategic framework programme for research and innovation of the European Commission (European Commission, 2011). Most importantly, interactions need to be promoted between researchers, farmers, private sector and consumers, to provide new opportunities for innovation. The development of this research will require increased training and capacity building in a number of disciplines which have been neglected over the past decades (e.g. agronomy and animal husbandry, farming systems) and that need to move towards more integrated systems approaches, by better integrating developments from a range of other disciplines such as ecology, earth sciences, social sciences, applied mathematics and computing. A pilot action has been launched by the FACCE JPI concerning the modelling of climate change risks in the form of a large collaborative network. This pilot action will help develop representative agricultural pathways and assess uncertainties (Soussana et al., 2010) through model development and inter-comparison in close connection with international programmes such as AgMIP (Agricultural Model Development and Intercomparison, Rosenzweig, 2010). Climate smart agriculture has been defined as agriculture that sustainably increases productivity and resilience (adaptation), reduces GHGs (mitigation) and enhances food security and development (FAO, 2010). We expect that the research undertaken by the JPI will provide the foundation for a European strategy for agriculture, food and bioeconomy that will lead to environmentally sustainable climate smart food systems. This report was financially supported by the EC FP7 Coordination and Support Action FACCE JPI (Contract number 277610). The help of Josephine Mac Sherry and Claire Treignier in the preparation of the manuscript is acknowledged.

Source: Global Change Biology

DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02746.x