Year: 1988
Type: article
Abstract: Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) was originally devised for situations where the spread of consequences is dominated by random variables, such as those describing the weather conditions when a release takes place, which belong to a well understood and measurable frequency distribution. Careful interpretation is required, however, in other applications, where the spread of the variables represents uncertainty due to lack of data and the probability distributions are to some extent arbitrarily assigned. Practical computational difficulties can also arise in situations where the risk appears to be concentrated into a narrowly defined region around a particular set of parameter values. An iterative approach to PRA is suggested, in which a readily available computer subroutine is first used to locate any such peaks and determine the sensitivity of the risk to each of the variables near to the peak. The results are then used as a guide for reappraisal of the input data and, in particular, to ensure that the final analysis correctly represents expert opinion in the most important areas that have been identified. The method is demonstrated with a simple mathematical model of dispersal from a nuclear waste repository.
Author: J O Corbett
Institution: Central Electricity Generating Board
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2023693449