Year: 1994
Type: article
Abstract: The epidemiologic transition theory to describe and explain the spectacular fall in mortality which has occurred in all currently industrialised countries, it can also be used to speculate on the likely consequences of future changes in mortality in countries which are lagging behind those which have already completed the epidemiolo- gic transition: will a fall in infectious disease mortality in currently developing countries lead to a rise in chronic diseases and accidents?28In addition, this notion of a more or less fixed pattern of changes over time in cause specific mortality may lead us to interpret cross sectional differences between countries in cause specific mortality as being due to a different timing of the epidemiologic transition, which in turn would suggest differences in stage of economic and social development as likely causes.In order to live up to these expectations, however, it is essential to investigate the historical changes in mortality much more thoroughly than has hitherto been done.Careful reconstruction of national time series of cause specific mortality are a necessary first step,29 and possibly cause specific mortality data from the pre-registration era, which are available for certain subnational populations such as London8 and Amsterdam,3' would also be useful.System- atic and comparative descriptive analyses of these time series may disclose common patterns of change, and thereby lead to a clearer notion of the transition (or transi- tions) which have taken place.Finally, we may try to develop comprehensive hypotheses on the explanation of the epidemiologic transition(s), perhaps incorporating recently accumulated evidence on the link between child- hood deprivation and adult heart disease.3'Clearly, this enterprise is too exciting to be left to demographers and geographers.
Authors: C Alvarez-Dardet, I Hernandez Aguado
Institution: Erasmus University Rotterdam
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2031367644