Work

Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime

Year: 2014

Type: article

Abstract: The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.

Source: PLoS ONE

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088923

Authors: David McMillon, Carl P. Simon, Jeffrey Morenoff

Institutions: University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research

Language: English

Topic: Crime Patterns and Interventions

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,382