Work

Traffic uncertainty in toll motorway concessions in Spain

Year: 2012

Type: article

Abstract: This study assessed the inaccuracy of the traffic estimates for toll motorway concessions in Spain. It was found that the estimates conducted by both the government and the concessionaire showed a significant bias towards overestimating traffic. The level of overestimation in Spain is even greater than that reported by other studies based on worldwide data. The notorious levels of overestimation entail severe burdens to the economics of the concessionaires that often prompt renegotiations of the contracts, which are often accepted by the government. These renegotiations usually end up with toll changes or extension of the concession terms, which have to be ultimately borne by future motorway users. It is postulated herein that the bias towards overestimating traffic in toll motorways in Spain is mostly caused by strategic issues rather than by modelling errors.

Source: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Transport

DOI: 10.1680/tran.2012.165.2.97

Authors: María A. Baeza, José M. Vassallo

Institutions: Universidad de Granada, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Language: English

Topic: Public-Private Partnership Projects

Subfield: Strategy and Management

Field: Business, Management and Accounting

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: green

Funder: Ministerio de Fomento