Work

Modeling the impacts of public transport reliability and travel information on passengers’ waiting-time uncertainty

Year: 2014

Type: article

Abstract: Public transport systems are subject to uncertainties related to traffic dynamic, operations, and passenger demand. Passenger waiting time is thus a random variable subject to day-to-day variations and the interaction between vehicle and passenger stochastic arrival processes. While the provision of real-time information could potentially reduce travel uncertainty, its impacts depend on the underlying service reliability, the performance of the prognosis scheme, and its perceived credibility. This paper presents a modeling framework for analyzing passengers’ learning process and adaptation with respect to waiting-time uncertainty and travel information. The model consists of a within-day network loading procedure and a day-to-day learning process, which are implemented in an agent-based simulation model. Each loop of within-day dynamics assigns travelers to paths by simulating the progress of individual travelers and vehicles as well as the generation and dissemination of travel information. The day-to-day learning model updates the accumulated memory of each traveler and updates consequently the credibility attributed to each information source based on the experienced waiting time. A case study in Stockholm demonstrates model capabilities and emphasizes the importance of behavioral adaptation when evaluating alternative measures which aim to improve service reliability.

Source: EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics

DOI: 10.1007/s13676-014-0070-4

Authors: Oded Cats, Zafeira Gkioulou

Institutions: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Delft University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Transportation Planning and Optimization

Subfield: Transportation

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,400