Work

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Year: 2014

Type: article

Abstract: We review the performance of the PollyVote, which combined forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts ’ judgment, and quantitative models, for forecasting the two-party popular vote shares in the 2012 U.S. Presidential Elections. Throughout the election year, the PollyVote provided highly accurate forecasts, outperforming each of its components as well as the forecasts from FiveThirtyEight.com. Gains in accuracy were particularly large early in the campaign, when uncertainty about the election outcome is high. The results confirm prior research showing that combining is one of the most effective approaches to generating accurate forecasts. Accuracy of combined forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote Since there have been elections, people have tried to predict their results. One of the oldest approaches is to rely on experts ’ expectations of who will win. Expert surveys and betting markets were regularly conducted already in the 1800s, and are still popular today (Erikson & Wlezien, 2013; Kernell, 2000). In the 1930s, polls that ask respondents about their intention to vote arose as another alternative and the

Authors: Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones, Alfred G. Cuzán

Institutions: Hochschule Macromedia, University of Pennsylvania, University of Central Oklahoma, University of West Florida

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2076685922

FWCI: 1.156

Cites: 9

Cited by: 4

Related to: 10