Year: 2015
Type: article
Abstract: The emergence of clear semantics for causal claims and of a sound logic for causal reasoning is relatively recent, with the consolidation over the past decades of a coherent theoretical corpus of definitions, concepts, and methods of general applicability that is anchored into counterfactuals. The latter corpus has proved to be of high practical interest in numerous applied fields (e.g., epidemiology, economics, and social science). In spite of their rather consensual nature and proven efficacy, these definitions and methods are to a large extent not used in detection and attribution (D&A). This article gives a brief overview of the main concepts underpinning the causal theory and proposes some methodological extensions for the causal attribution of weather and climate-related events that are rooted into the latter. Implications for the formulation of causal claims and their uncertainty are finally discussed.
Authors: A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghil
Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios de Clima y sus Impactos, University of California, Los Angeles, University of Oxford, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, École Normale Supérieure - PSL
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2080058507