Year: 2010
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: Reoccurring instances of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in countries with underdeveloped infection surveillance have been taking a heavy toll on the lives of millions of livestock and causing annual financial losses worth billions of US dollars every year. FMD has been widely analyzed as a highly infectious disease that spreads rapidly with the movement of infected or contaminated animals of multiple species, and movement of people as well. Here, a metapopulation based stochastic model is implemented to assess the FMD infection dynamics and to curb the economic losses in such countries. This model predicts the spatio-temporal evolution of FMD over a weighted contact network where the weights are characterized by the effect of wind and movement of animals and humans. FMD Incidence data from Turkey is used to calibrate and validate the model, and the predictive performance of our model is compared with baseline models as well. Finally, cost effective mitigation strategies are simulated using the theoretical concept of network fragmentation. Based on the theoretical reduction in the total number of infected animals, several practical mitigation strategies are proposed and their cost effectivenesses are also analyzed.
Source: Procedia Computer Science
Institution: Kansas State University
Language: English
Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W2084980599