Work

An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff

Year: 2014

Type: article

Abstract: Many previous studies have evaluated the hydrologic response to climate change using the first‐order approximation (first‐order Taylor expansion) of the Mezentsev‐Choudhury‐Yang equation (formulating the Budyko hypothesis), which has a parameter n representing catchment characteristics. However, no studies have paid attention to the error due to the first‐order approximation. This study therefore estimates this error to improve the theoretical framework for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff based on the Budyko hypothesis. Specifically, the error increases when precipitation (P) decreases and potential evaporation (E0) increases, and n increases. Therefore, an increasing P or decreasing E0 leads to an underestimate of the climatic contributions, while a decreasing P or increasing E0 leads to an overestimate. In addition, we suggest a new method to accurately estimate the contribution of climate change to runoff.

Source: Water Resources Research

DOI: 10.1002/2014wr015451

Authors: Hanbo Yang, Dawen Yang, Qingfang Hu

Institutions: Tsinghua University, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Language: English

Topic: Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Subfield: Water Science and Technology

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Higher Education Young Elite Teacher Project