Work

Tropical Pacific Ocean heat content variations and ENSO persistence barriers

Year: 2003

Type: article

Abstract: Data from the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1980–2002 are used to examine the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content variations in relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study demonstrates that, unlike for SST, there is no spring persistence barrier when considering upper ocean heat content. Conversely, there is a persistence barrier for heat content in boreal winter related to a seasonal reduction in variance. These results are consistent with ENSO forecast model studies indicating that accurate initialization of upper ocean heat content often reduces the prominence of the spring prediction barrier for SST. They also suggest that initialization of upper ocean heat content variations may lead to seasonally varying enhancements of forecast skill, with the most pronounced enhancements for forecasts starting early and late in the development of ENSO events.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2003gl016872

Author: Michael J. McPhaden

Institutions: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA Research