Validation of the Health ABC Heart Failure Model for Incident Heart Failure Risk Prediction
Year: 2010
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model. METHODS AND RESULTS: Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2% versus 2.8%, 9.0% versus 7.0%, 15.9% versus 13.7%, and 24.6% versus 30.8% for the <5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 20%, and >20% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.76). Calibration and discrimination demonstrated adequate performance across sex and race overall; however, risk was underestimated in white men, especially in the 5% to 10% risk category. Model performance was optimal when participants with normal left ventricular function at baseline were assessed separately. Performance was consistent across age groups. Analyses with death as a competing risk yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: The Health ABC HF model adequately predicted 5-year heart failure risk in a large community-based study, providing support for the external validity of the model. This tool may be used to identify individuals to whom to target heart failure prevention efforts.
Source: Circulation Heart Failure
Authors: Andreas Kalogeropoulos, Bruce M. Psaty, Ramachandran S. Vasan, Vasiliki Georgiopoulou, Andrew L. Smith, Nicholas L. Smith, Stephen B. Kritchevsky, Peter W.F. Wilson, Anne B. Newman, Tamara B. Harris, Javed Butler, for the Cardiovascular Health Study
Language: English
Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
Funders: Emory University, National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Cancer Institute, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Center for Research Resources, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences
Awards: G1220223050, CORONARY HEART DISEASE AND STROKE, CORONARY HEART DISEASE &STROKE IN PEOPLE AGED 65-84, Atlanta Clinical and Translational Science Institute (UL1), CHS-ULTRASOUND READING, CORONARY HEART DISEASE AND STROKE, MRI READING CENTER FOR THE CARDIOVASCULAR HEALTH STUDY, CORONARY HEART DISEASE AND STROKE IN PEOPLE AGED 65-84, G1909643007, PHASE I CLINICAL STUDIES OF CHEMOPREVENTIVE AGENTS - WS 40 -261015103, G2194386449, CORONARY HEART DISEASE AND STROKE IN PEOPLE AGED 65-84, CORONARY HEART DISEASE &STROKE IN PEOPLE AGED 65-84, G2391884931, CORONARY HEART DISEASE &STROKE IN THE ELDERLY, G277826483, G2800149121, G3045517347, G328935669, G3938678028, CENTRAL BLOOD ANALYSIS LABORATORY FOR CHS, G4012114008, G4048755144, G423252844, G425202921, G4617276643, G4660668308, G4987078009, G5167412771, G581887176, Atlanta Clinical and Translational Science Institute (ACTSI) Renewal, CHS Events Follow-up Study, G6226795708, G687544517, G7176672723, G7286144250, G7367506801, CHS RETINAL READING CENTER, G764651519, CARDIOVASCULAR HEALTH STUDY--ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY, G766700449, G777822606, G7999488110, G806768229, G8402048158, G8593276544, G859984287, CHS-Transition Phase -268055222, G9000027259, G9000069887, G9000089011, G9000145448, G9000155493, G9000239991, G9000294005, Wake Forest Claude D. Pepper OAIC - Renewal, G905887895, G960597250
OpenAlex ID: W2093063170