Year: 2000
Type: article
Abstract: We present a model of coups in autocracies. Assuming that policy choices cannot be observed but are correlated with the short‐run performance of the economy we find that: (a) the threat of a coup disciplines autocrats; (b) coups are more likely in recessions; (c) increasing per capita income has an ambiguous effect on the probability of a coup. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence. On average, one recession in the previous year increases the probability of a coup attempt by 47 percent. By contrast, the effect of the level of per capita income is weak.
Source: Economics and Politics
Authors: Alexander Galetovic, Ricardo Sanhueza
Institution: University of Chile
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2093692028