The effect of accuracy motivation and directional motivation on the optimistic bias in prediction of task completion time
Year: 1995
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Two studies were conducted to examine the role of motivation in the optimistic bias in people's predictions of completion times.It was hypothesized that a strong desire to finish tasks quickly (directional goal) would increase the optimistic bias and that a strong desire to make accurate predictions would attenuate the bias.After completing two timed anagram trials, subjects predicted, under varying incentive conditions, how long the third trial would take.High accuracy subjects were offered a monetary prize for making an accurate prediction, whereas high directional subjects were offered a monetary prize for finishing quickly.These two motivational factors were crossed in a factorial design.In addition, in Study 2, half of the subjects were informed of their pre-trial times while the other half were not.Subjects' predicted and actual completion times were only partially consistent with the hypotheses.In Study 1, the accuracy goal actually increased the optimistic bias in prediction, largely because it increased actual completion times; however, this finding was not obtained in the second study.In Study 2, the directional goal led subjects to predict shorter completion times and also to finish more quickly.Additional thought listing measures revealed that high accuracy subjects were more likely to base predictions on a calculated average past completion time whereas high directional subjects were more likely to discount their past performance and anticipate improvement.Procedure 33 .......
Source: Summit (Simon Fraser University)
Author: H.F. Macdonald
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2108609480