Work

Optimizing Bus Frequencies under Uncertain Demand: Case Study of the Transit Network in a Developing City

Year: 2013

Type: article

Abstract: Various factors can make predicting bus passenger demand uncertain. In this study, a bilevel programming model for optimizing bus frequencies based on uncertain bus passenger demand is formulated. There are two terms constituting the upper-level objective. The first is transit network cost, consisting of the passengers’ expected travel time and operating costs, and the second is transit network robustness performance, indicated by the variance in passenger travel time. The second term reflects the risk aversion of decision maker, and it can make the most uncertain demand be met by the bus operation with the optimal transit frequency. With transit link’s proportional flow eigenvalues (mean and covariance) obtained from the lower-level model, the upper-level objective is formulated by the analytical method. In the lower-level model, the above two eigenvalues are calculated by analyzing the propagation of mean transit trips and their variation in the optimal strategy transit assignment process. The genetic algorithm (GA) used to solve the model is tested in an example network. Finally, the model is applied to determining optimal bus frequencies in the city of Liupanshui, China. The total cost of the transit system in Liupanshui can be reduced by about 6% via this method.

Source: Mathematical Problems in Engineering

DOI: 10.1155/2013/375084

Authors: Zhengfeng Huang, Gang Ren, Haixu Liu

Institutions: University of Wisconsin–Madison, Southeast University, Southwest Jiaotong University

Language: English

Topic: Transportation Planning and Optimization

Subfield: Transportation

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,550