When Is Difficult Planning Good Planning? The Effects of Scenario‐Based Planning on Optimistic Prediction Bias
Year: 2012
Type: article
Abstract: As a general rule, individuals tend to be optimistic in predicting when they will complete an upcoming activity. Building upon the ease of generation theory, we examined how dividing the planning process into multiple steps would impact the magnitude of optimism in “real world” planning. In Experiment 1 we found a decrease in optimistic prediction bias when individuals described their plans by generating a relatively difficult five‐step, rather than a relatively easy two‐step, optimistic scenario. In Experiment 2 the bias diminished when individuals generated the easy, rather than difficult, pessimistic scenario. In Experiment 3 the bias decreased even among individuals who generated the easy, rather than difficult, optimistic scenario when they were led to negatively interpret the feeling of ease.
Authors: Kyeong Sam Min, Hal R. Arkes
Institutions: LSU New Orleans, The Ohio State University
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2113449280