Work

Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories

Year: 2009

Type: article

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a recently established relationship between cohort smoking patterns and adult mortality into mortality projections for the United States. In particular, we incorporate a variable representing the intensity of smoking within a cohort into the original Lee-Carter projection model. The introduction of this variable accounts for important anomalies in the recent age/sex pattern of mortality change and enables the use of a common temporal trend of mortality change for the 2 sexes. We project age-specific mortality rates for men and women at ages 50-84 between 2004 and 2034 in the United States. Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model.

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0811809106

Authors: Haidong Wang, Samuel H. Preston

Institutions: University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Pennsylvania

Language: English

Topic: Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Subfield: Demography

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: green

Funder: National Institute on Aging