Work

Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment

Year: 2011

Type: article

Abstract: Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t – 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)

Source: American Economic Journal Applied Economics

DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.215

Author: Antonio Ciccone

Institutions: Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona School of Economics

Language: English

Topic: Political Conflict and Governance

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: green

Funder: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria