Work

A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records

Year: 2015

Type: article

Abstract: Holocene (the last 12,000 years) temperature variation, including the transition out of the last Ice Age to a warmer climate, is reconstructed at multiple locations in southern Finland, Sweden and Estonia based on pollen fossil data from lake sediment cores. A novel Bayesian statistical approach is proposed that allows the reconstructed temperature histories to interact through shared environmental response parameters and spatial dependence. The prior distribution for past temperatures is partially based on numerical climate simulation. The features in the reconstructions are consistent with the quantitative climate reconstructions based on more commonly used reconstruction techniques. The results suggest that the novel spatio-temporal approach can provide quantitative reconstructions that are smoother, less uncertain and generally more realistic than the site-specific individual reconstructions.

Source: The Annals of Applied Statistics

DOI: 10.1214/15-aoas832

Authors: Lasse Holmström, Liisa Ilvonen, Heikki Seppä, Siim Veski

Institutions: University of Helsinki, University of Oulu, Tallinn University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Geology and Paleoclimatology Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: bronze

OpenAlex ID: W2118113182