Year: 2013
Type: article
Abstract: Can today's global climate model ensembles characterize the 21st century climate in their own 'model-worlds'? This question is at the heart of how we design and interpret climate model experiments for both science and policy support. Using a low-dimensional nonlinear system that exhibits behaviour similar to that of the atmosphere and ocean, we explore the implications of ensemble size and two methods of constructing climatic distributions, for the quantification of a model's climate. Small ensembles are shown to be misleading in non-stationary conditions analogous to externally forced climate change, and sometimes also in stationary conditions which reflect the case of an unforced climate. These results show that ensembles of several hundred members may be required to characterize a model's climate and inform robust statements about the relative roles of different sources of climate prediction uncertainty.
Source: Environmental Research Letters
Authors: Joseph D Daron, David A Stainforth
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,045
Funders: University of Cape Town, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, University of Leeds, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council
Award: G8860778660
OpenAlex ID: W2124019631