Work

Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football

Year: 2006

Type: article

Abstract: This paper examines a single, narrow decision—the choice on fourth down in the National Football League between kicking and trying for a first down—as a case study of the standard view that competition in the goods, capital, and labor markets leads firms to make maximizing choices. Play‐by‐play data and dynamic programming are used to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and trying for a first down under different circumstances. Examination of actual decisions shows systematic, clear‐cut, and overwhelmingly statistically significant departures from the decisions that would maximize teams’ chances of winning. Possible reasons for the departures are considered.

Source: Journal of Political Economy

DOI: 10.1086/501171

Author: David Romer

Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, University of California, Berkeley

Language: English

Topic: Sports Analytics and Performance

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2133269919

FWCI: 17.84

Cites: 21

Cited by: 216

Related to: 10