Understanding the role of climatic and environmental variables on the population dynamics of Anopheles gambiae s.s. and the implications for vector control strategies in different settings
Year: 2012
Type: article
Abstract: Background The impact of weather, climate, and environmental conditions on malaria transmission have attracted increasing attention in recent years, although there remain significant uncertainties and debate regarding its precise role. Global mean temperatures are predicted to increase by several degrees over the coming century, although increases in Africa, accounting for over 90% of the global malaria burden, are expected to be greater than the global mean, with anticipated median increases around 3-4°C (depending on the emissions scenario). Global mean precipitation is also predicted to increase in most emissions scenarios over the coming decades, although there is currently less consensus between climate models on expected changes thereafter, particularly at low latitudes where the majority of cases arise and across many regions of Africa. Mathematical models provide powerful tools for understanding the impact of changes in environmental variables on transmission and intervention strategies, but this first requires realistic modelling of Anopheles population dynamics and its response to environmental variables. Materials and methods Experimental and field data are used to develop new parameterisations to model the relationships between key aspects of An. gambiae s.s. ecology and climatic and environmental conditions. These relationships are integrated into a deterministic model of Anopheles gambiae s.s. population dynamics to better understand mosquito response to changes in biotic and abiotic variables. This model is then calibrated against longitudinal vector abundance data from Tanzania, before applying the methods of matrix population modelling to analyse model behaviour (specifically, adult An. gambiae s.s. response to environmental conditions), and, hence, assess the implications for the design and implementation of local vector control strategies.
Source: Malaria Journal
Language: English
Topic: Malaria Research and Control
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,890
OpenAlex ID: W2138573917