Political Risk, Economic Risk, and Financial Risk
Year: 1996
Type: article
Abstract: Given the increasingly global nature of investment portfolios, an understanding of country risk is very important. This article addresses the economic content of five different measures of country risk: four measures from the International Country Risk Guide's political-, financial-, economic-, and composite-risk indexes and one from Institutional Investor's country credit ratings. We explored whether any of these measures contain information about future expected stock returns. We conducted time-series/cross-sectional analysis linking these risk measures to future expected returns. Finally, we analyzed the links between fundamental attributes such as book-to-price ratios within each economy and the risk measures. The results suggest that the country-risk measures are correlated with future equity returns. In addition, such measures are highly correlated with equity valuation measures. This finding provides some insight into the reason that value-oriented strategies generate high average returns.
Source: Financial Analysts Journal
Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, Duke University
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2141145477